Hopefully, this guy will not be my congressman after 2018.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2017/Senate/Maps/Aug11.html#item-11
China and North Korea
Very interesting op-ed/analysis of the consequences of China’s longstanding support for North Korea. Unspoken, it also makes a case for why Trump’s withdrawing from TPP undermine’s America’s position against China in the region.
Senator Strange (R-AL) In Danger of Losing Primary
This is an interesting story in terms of where the Republican party is at, at least in Alabama. Jeff Sessions left the Senate to become Attorney General, and the governor of Alabama appointed Luther Strange to fill the seat. A special election is being held this year to determine who will hold the seat until the term is up. Strange is, of course, running as the incumbent. He has been a solid Republican vote in the Senate, and is supported by both Majority Leader McConnell and President Trump.
Problem is, polls show he is losing in the primary to two time former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore (R). Moore was removed from the post twice, once for refusing to comply with an order from a higher court to remove a monument to the Ten Commandments from his courthouse. The second time was over his refusal to comply with the US Supreme Court ruling on marriage equality for gays.
Polls show Moore up by 10 in the primary vote, which will be held on Tuesday. While folks might think there is an opening here for the Democrats, Alabama is still a solid red state (unlike neighboring Georgia, which is trending to legitimate swing state status). As such, the Democrats don’t appear to have a credible challenger that will prevail in their primary.
If Moore is elected, he would prove a thorn in the side of both McConnell and Trump, as he is definitely a Freedom Caucus /Tea Party Caucus member in waiting. What good is being the majority party if you can’t agree on which direction to go?
Why Things May Not Go the Democrats Way in 2018
Excellent think piece from the Washington Post today outlining why there are structural differences between the mood now and the mood in 2005, before the last big Democrat wave election. The bottom line really is, it will all come down to the candidates that run and the race that they run. That should be the biggest takeaway from 2016 for everybody.
First Dem considers running against Sen. Flake (R-AZ)
The first rumblings of a serious Democrat to run against Senator Flake. The calculations are being made for several people right now, as there are definite headwinds for Flake to win re-election, not the least of which is a strong primary fight on the Republican side.
Sen Heller Gets Primary Challenger
Nevada’s Senator Heller, who already has a solid Democrat challenger to face in the general election, now has a strong primary opponent to his right.
NBC News: Political Shift After Twenty-Year Realignment
Great overview of how Congress has become a body where nothing can be accomplished.
Republicans prepare for 2020 Presidential Competition
It’s fair to say that there is skepticism that Trump will run, or be a viable general election candidate, in 2020, prompting a healthier-than-usual amount of ground testing by multiple potential 2020 candidates, including VP Mike Pence, Gov Kasich, and Senators Tom Cotton (Arkansas) and Ben Sasse (Nebraska). This article also mentions UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, who would be a strong candidate.
Sen Heller’s Approval Tanks, according to poll
This is a poll from the Public Policy Poll, a firm with Democratic leanings. However, even putting a thumb on the scale is not going to yield a result of 22% approval rating. Heller is definitely in trouble, and his actions in the health care debate/votes in the Senate seem the most likely culprit.
Montana’s Tester picks up legitimate challenger
Senator Tester’s approval ratings are still very healthy, so it’s an uphill climb to unseat him. A lot will depend on how much damage the Republicans do to each other in the primary next year.
http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/republican-matt-rosendale-challenging-montanas-jon-tester
The Electoral College Blog 